2024 College Football Conference Preview: SEC

The motto for the SEC entering the 2024 season: The rich get richer. We enter a new era of SEC football with the addition of the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners. Both teams present absolute nightmares to the Bowl Game hopes and dreams of the bottom of the SEC (as a Gamecock, this hurt to type), in addition to an influx of new talent for the conference with the most draft picks year over year. One of the main themes in these write-ups is the parity that will exist throughout college football this season. Aside from the Big 12, the SEC should have the most parity, reflected in my record predictions. The (8) top-tier teams are loaded, and although the odds make it seem like a two-team race (UGA and Texas), don’t be surprised if an (odds-wise) sleeper comes out of nowhere. Another theme for the SEC will be Quarterback play. Top to bottom, each of the teams has a guy or at least someone with the potential to be the guy. Each week will be absolute warfare, and like every other season, there will be plenty of upsets and marquee matchups. Although I typically love to be an SEC hater, especially due to the dumbass “It JuSt MeAnS mOrE,” it would be naïve not to admit they are the best conference in the NCAA, with the potential for four playoff teams come January. Enough compliments: let's dive in.

Darkhorse(s) to win the Conference

LSU (+1000)

Late in the season, LSU had a legitimate chance to play themselves into the SEC championship, and I could not imagine their defense getting any worse than in 2023. I believe this bodes well heading into 2024. No, Garrett Nussmeier does not have the legs Jayden Daniels had, but I’d argue he’s a higher-ceiling pure passer, which Brian Kelly could fall in love with as the season progresses. Additionally, if there is any school that could replace two first-round wide receivers in an offseason, it’s LSU.

I expect the LSU defense to be hungry after hearing all offseason how good this team could be if the defense ever showed up, and with the leadership of Harold Perkins, they should come revamped. Although it won’t be easy, most of LSU’s toughest matchups within the conference are at home (Ole Miss, Alabama, Oklahoma), while the two toughest road games (Texas A&M & Florida) are very winnable. If this team can escape USC and UCLA in the non-conference schedule, they could be a solid dark horse for a playoff berth.

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Texas A&M (+1400)

We are a long way from the $85.9 million buyout the Aggies football program gifted Jimbo Fisher at the end of last season. Now, as we enter 2024, Coach Miko Elko comes over from Duke, where he completely rebuilt the program in his few years. Elko brings in young, hot-shot OC Collin Klein (KSU legend) and journeyman coach Jay Bateman as DC. Combined with the talent already on the team from 2023, including additions via the portal, the Aggies have positioned themselves nicely heading into the season. The offense is led by QB Connor Weigman, who has the potential to be an All-American if health persists. Defensively, they are led by the best defensive line in the country.

As for the schedule, there is no other way to put it: the SEC is an absolute gauntlet this season. I know it’s “always good,” and SEC fans will never let you forget that. But especially this season, it is difficult to find any schedules that are “favorable” just because of the depth and talent within this league. Even so, I believe Texas A&M has a favorable conference schedule. The Aggies will have to host the Fighting Irish in College Station to begin the year and visit Florida early in the season. As for their other two most difficult games, LSU & Texas are both at Kyle Field, which presents a massive advantage. There is no reason why this team couldn’t knock off at least one of those two and play for an SEC championship. Hell, if you’re feeling frisky, I’d even go as far as to say take Texas A&M to make the playoffs at +240.

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Favorite Win Total: Overs

Vanderbilt Over 2.5 (-180)

I refuse to give you some fake “buy-in” for the Commodores as they enter the 2024 season. Truthfully, they are going to be bad. They have been more competent under Clark Lea than previous regimes, though the point remains. Hell, I’d even give them a 95% chance of finishing with the worst record in the SEC. Even so, I have no choice but to lay the heavy juice on them at 2.5. There is no chance that this team won't win three games. We had this same bet last season with the motto “over by October," and it SMASHED.

Vanderbilt has three cupcake non-conference matchups (Alcorn State, Georgia State, and Ball State). If any of them are lost, head coach Clark Lea will be fired before he can get back on the bus. Even though it’s Vanderbilt, I am backing the SEC talent to take care of business against these three teams and get us over by mid-October.

Texas A&M Over 8.5 (-122)

I won't bore you to death by reiterating what I just wrote in a slightly different way. Texas A&M has a cakewalk conference schedule and should be able to take advantage with a record of at least 9-3. I might hate them, but value is value. Back the Aggies over 8.5.

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Favorite Win Total: Unders

Ole Miss Under 9.5 (-105)

In the case of Ole Miss, I am out on hired guns. I’m not saying teams heavily involved in the transfer portal can not win a championship. That has already been disproven. I am saying in this instance, with all the expectations in the world, college football fans need to take a step back and remember who we are talking about. Respectfully, when has Ole Miss been nationally relevant, aside from a lucky tip-ball drill on a throw by Chad Kelly to Quincy Adeboyejo in 2015? Ole Miss under Lane Kiffin continues to have high expectations each year, and although they have a flashy offense and kick-ass jerseys, they always fall short.

As for my point on the transfers, who is to say after a couple of losses, the hired guns don’t have an “injury” that keeps them out for the rest of the season as they prepare for the draft? I don’t want to make it seem like these kids don’t care about their school because I bet most players do. I have worries for players who come in for one season before they head to the NFL. I am bearish on this Ole Miss team and their difficult schedule, but I am also prepared to be wrong if Jaxson Dart turns in an All-American season and leads Hotty Toddy to the CFP.

Missouri Under 9.5 (-180)

Although I expect Missouri to be a very talented team, with the departure of key pieces on the defensive end, in addition to do-it-all running back Cody Schrader, I could see a minor setback for the Tigers. I don’t expect a full-blown recession back to 6-6, as their schedule wouldn’t allow that. Each time I look through this schedule, I continue to see 8-4 or 9-3 as more likely than 10-2 or better. Brady Cook and Luther Burden should continue to build off their chemistry in 2023 and put up monster numbers, but I think this team could have to average 31+ ppg to give themselves a chance in each ball game. One-dimensional is a scary place for any team with a win total this high. I'll take the under.

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Heisman Hopefuls

Garrett Nussmeier (+1600)

I am not going to lie: I have been enamored with Garrett Nussmeier since he came back to beat the Badgers on New Year’s Day last season. I’m writing a full-season preview later this week (spoiler warning), but Garrett Nussmeier is my Heisman bet. His arm talent is there, and LSU’s weapons, offensive line, and coaching are in great positions. We know Brian Kelly has zero issues with running up a couple of scores if it means giving his QB the best possible stats. I think all the pieces for a Heisman season are there; all he has to do is finish the puzzle in his first season starting.

Two things cause worry for me with this bet: Voter fatigue and the defense. I could see Nussmeier putting together the best statistical season, but due to Burrow and Daniels each winning Heisman trophies in the past five seasons, voters might now want to vote for another Tiger. Additionally, the defense is a dual-edged sword. To put up video game numbers, Nussmeier might need his defense to keep games closer than they should be. But, to put him over the top, the team needs to be ultra-successful, which again will be dependent on defensive improvements. Overall, I see him throwing for 350+ yards per game, LSU averaging 40+ points, and since I’m confident enough to bet them to win the SEC, why would their offensive leader not earn a seat in New York?

Quinn Ewers (+1000)

The second Heisman spot in the SEC was between three QBs to me: Quinn Ewers, Carson Beck, and Jalen Milroe.

In my mind, I eliminated Carson Beck since Georgia typically beats the life out of every opponent, allowing Beck to sit out drives late in the game. This forces Beck to leave yards and TDs on the field. As for Milroe, between inefficiency as a passer, a tough schedule, and a new system, too many new items could lead to inconsistency. Finally, the choice became Quinn Ewers. If Ewers can lead Texas to an SEC championship game appearance, with the difficulty of his schedule and with injuries in the Longhorns backfield, I’d put him a shoo-in for New York. He has the system, as well as the volume for huge numbers. It is just a matter of whether he can remain healthy for an entire season. If he can, his season could be capped off with a Heisman trophy.