2024 College Football Conference Preview: Big 12

Truthfully, most years the Big 12 conference is a dead spot for me. To me, the Big 12 was too predictable for too long. We would have entertaining matchups every week, but each season, the expectation was for Texas or Oklahoma to cruise to a Big 12 title, with Gundy being their only chance to slip up. With Texas and Oklahoma’s departure, that sentiment is out the window. My preseason predictions below will align with this, but you will not find a more wide-open conference in the nation than the Big 12. Legitimate arguments exist for eight different schools going into the 2024 season, hell I mean the odds back up that take as well. Truthfully, if you’re looking for high-end talent (especially defensively), this conference is not for you. But if you are looking for polar-opposite schemes battling each week and athletes playing their hearts out, this is your conference. Each week will be a battle. It doesn’t matter if a 1-6 squad hosts a 7-0 team. It will be war. In its first year with a new look, the Big 12 should provide everything we look for in college football: chaos and upsets. If you can’t tell, I am genuinely excited because the table below could be destroyed within the first few weeks, but that’s part of the fun. Enjoy it. Let’s dive in.

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Darkhorse(s) to Win the Conference:

Oklahoma State (+750)

Following a Big 12 Conference Championship appearance, Oklahoma State comes into 2024 with high expectations. In addition to the best Running Back in the nation, Ollie Gordon, the Cowboys bring back 7th-year (yep, that’s right) QB Alan Bowman. In the final year of additional COVID eligibility, the Pokes are running it back to try and take full advantage in his final season in Stillwater. As for the team around these two, Oklahoma State seems to prove each season that it does not matter who they lose; each player they bring in will compete, and the Pokes will win 8+ games.

Their schedule this season is not as easy as last year, as they face the two favorites (Utah and Kansas State) in the Big 12 in back-to-back weeks in September, following a non-conference matchup against Arkansas. Two positives that come from that? First, the Cowboys have Utah in Stillwater, a legitimate game-changing atmosphere if they make that game at night. Second, the back half of their schedule is much more manageable. If they can find an upset within one of the two big dogs in the conference, the Pokes could make some noise. Even when this conference had Oklahoma and Texas, Oklahoma State was a yearly thorn in their side. With the conference now being “wide open” and at this number, it is worth betting on Gundy to outperform teams with serious expectations within the conference, as he does on a year-to-year basis.

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Baylor (+6000)

I will preface that this bet is 100% off potential, but if Baylor gets off to a slow start and Aranda gets fired, we can burn this ticket by Week 5. Even so, I think this number is too good not to sprinkle. I want to warn you that the 2024 Baylor Bears will be an extremely volatile preseason bet. But, I remain a believer in Dave Aranda. In true Head Coach on the hot seat fashion, he has reverted to his roots and taken control of the defensive play calling. After watching his defenses at Wisconsin and LSU, I think this bodes well for the Bears.

In addition to the coaching, one under-the-radar transfer I have not seen enough social media love over is QB DeQuan Finn, who joins the Bears after an electric year at Toledo. The last time we saw Baylor with a serviceable QB was three seasons ago when the Bears made the Big 12 championship and were a matter of feet away from a CFP berth. Although a big step, especially for a team with a win total of 5.5, I feel the potential is there. Hell, if the Defense is swarming and Finn is electric early, who knows, maybe the town of Waco rises behind the Bears and becomes a formidable home-field advantage once again. Yes, most of this analysis is risk and speculation, but it might be worth a sprinkle.

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Favorite Win Total: Over

Baylor over 5.5 (-105)

Okay, I’m not going to waste your time and hurt your brain reading any more about the Baylor Bears, but in a similar fashion to the analysis above, if I feel they could win the conference, why would I not take them to reach a bowl game? Bears go bowling.

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Utah over 9.5 (-145)

I know I’ve made a point to highlight the parity that we could see amongst Big 12 opponents this season, but I’ve almost separated the Utes from that analysis altogether. After being sidelined through the 2023 season, Cam Rising is back for his 7th college football season. He immediately vaults Utah into a top 15 program in the nation, as they also return their star TE Brant Kuithe, a high-end, sure-fire 2025 NFL draft pick. As always, the Utes will have a stout defense led by longtime Defensive Coordinator (and Head Coach in waiting) Morgan Scalley. Lastly, I’m not sure if HC Kyle Whittingham will retire at the end of the season, as some speculate, but a loaded team with a favorable schedule could lead to that outcome.

As for the playing conditions, you can ask Caleb Williams; once the sun goes down in Salt Lake City, the game is a wrap. Utah has one of the best (in my opinion, the best) home-field advantages, especially when you factor in the altitude that these flat Texas and midwestern schools will have to deal with. Will the teams begin to fly in early to adjust? Or will they accept their fate? The vibes surrounding the Utes point to a special season incoming, starting with double-digit wins.

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Favorite Win Total: Under

TCU under 7.5 (-150)

Following an incredible 2022 season, including a National Championship berth, TCU was hit by the regression monster hard last season. Most saw it coming between the loss of draft picks coinciding with the luck factor of going undefeated within (7) one-possession games. It would be difficult for any program to sustain that level of success. Now, following a 5-7 2023 campaign, do I expect them to do as poorly this season? I do not. I believe their results will fall right back to the mean, leading to a 6-6 or 7-5 result, and here’s why.

Although TCU is ending the Chandler Morris experiment and handing the reigns to Josh Hoover, who will be an upgrade, I am not sure that they’ve done enough around him to find success. Toward the end of the 2023 season, Hoover was lighting up the stat sheet, yet it was still not translating to wins for the Horned Frogs. Their defense hasn’t improved as much as I feel it needed to, in addition to a difficult conference schedule this year. In the new-look Big 12 defense will be king, and I am not sure that TCU will be able to match the necessary physicality this season.

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Colorado Under 5.5 (+116)

By now, this bet should be expected. I’m not a fan of teams that get dominated at the line of scrimmage and try to survive off spread, backyard football, and that is the Buffaloes. I have never doubted their offensive weapons, but they hardly addressed the key pressure points that killed them last year, and this year has a more difficult schedule. First, they face off with the best FCS school, a team that routinely ruins FBS programs to start the season. Next, the Buffs travel to (an improved) Nebraska and end the non-con on the road against rival Colorado State. Those three games present a gauntlet ahead of their actual conference schedule.

Next, I do want to say that I am a fan of Prime, the person. As for Coach Prime? He was a negative to their sideline last year. He was able to get by on talent at Jackson State, and he is facing the harsh reality that coaching within a P4 conference is a different beast. Between the antics with OC Sean Lewis to calling out players to the media, I have doubts about his coaching career long-term. But hey, get your players some additional notoriety.

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Potential Heisman

Jalon Daniels (+3000)

If, and that is the biggest question, Jalon Daniels can remain healthy, he should almost be guaranteed a spot in New York. He is everything that traditional Heisman voters look for in a player. He will be able to put up numbers both in the passing game and rush game, he can make plays out of thin air, and he is on a team that will be able to take advantage of a favorable conference schedule. I could see a vintage Big 12 QB season (think RGIII) out of Daniels.

There are two risks associated with this bet, but this price makes it worth it: As previously stated, his injury history is a legitimate concern. Back injuries typically linger and are never able to fully heal. Next, Daniels will have to adjust to a similar-yet-new offensive scheme following the departure of OC Andy Kotelnicki. Although this is a huge loss for the program, I believe in Leipold and his ability to put the best situation around his star QB.

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Ollie Gordon (+6500)

It seems the only thing standing in the way of Ollie Gordon in 2024 is a DUI. The best running back in the nation has every tool and ability to lead the Cowboys to a Big 12 Championship berth, but if you don’t have the awareness to swallow a $7 Uber in Stillwater, Oklahoma, then I don’t know what to tell you.

On a more serious note, we have not seen a Running Back win the Heisman Derrick Henry in 2015 (with a Melvin Gordon snub), but if there were an RB to break that mold, it would be Ollie Gordon. Between Gundy joking about how his punishment for the DUI will be “more carries” and a favorable schedule, Ollie should be able to put up monster numbers. In my opinion, the odds are so long due to the doubt in Oklahoma State to put up a good enough season to have a player considered for a Heisman, in addition to the Heisman becoming a “best QB” award, but that’s a complaint for another blog. Regardless, I’m confident in the numbers that the stud RB should put up, so I feel comfortable sprinkling on these odds.

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