2024 College Football Conference Preview: Big 10

With the conclusion of Big 10 Media days last week, we have officially ushered into a new era for the conference. As if Wisconsin transitioning away from the I-Formation wasn't enough, the conference now welcomes four new West Coast programs that have no idea what they are getting into. I've said this since the rumors began circulating during COVID-19, but a team like UCLA having to travel across the country to Piscataway, New Jersey, is what it's all about. The optics are hysterical, the travel coordination will cause headaches and job openings, and the style of play will be unlike anything the candy-ass (former) Pac-12 schools have ever seen. Good luck trying to throw the ball 50 times in Iowa City. Smash-Mouth Big 10 ball will make their lives hell. All you have to do is ask Washington after their less-than-stellar performance in the National Championship. 

On a more serious note, the Big 10 is going to look much different this year, but it isn't solely due to the newcomers. Following the 2023 season, the conference lost two legends of the game: Jim Harbaugh and Brian Ferentz. One of them decided to parlay a National Championship victory into a second stint in the NFL, as the other couldn't manage to average more than the 25ppg minimum required within his contract last season. I wish them both the best. Overall, the conference will look much different than in 2023 as roughly 16 of the teams within the conference will have a different Week 1 starter than in 2023. At the end of the day, the usual teams will be featured in the majority of Primetime slots (Michigan, OSU, Oregon, and PSU), and rightfully so. I am unsure if the top of the Big 10 has ever been stronger, and I am under the assumption that the entire season will run through Columbus, Ohio. 

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Before I ramble and dive into too many preseason predictions, let's go ahead and dive in. But first, I'd like to Thank God that we're back.

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Darkhorse(s) to win the Conference Championship:

Michigan (+600)

I completely understand that they lost Jim Harbaugh. I completely understand that they lost a top QB prospect in JJ McCarthy, in addition to twelve additional NFL draft picks from the 2023 National Championship team. I  understand that distractions will, yet again, be a driving factor in 2024, as rumors of a postseason ban are circulating. Regardless, this does not make me believe that Michigan will plummet back into the dark days of Rich Rodriguez or Brady Hoke. 

The Wolverines return multiple first-round draft picks, a freak of nature QB, and most importantly, a program identity. Michigan will continue to beat up teams in the trenches, control the line of scrimmage, and run the ball down the opponent's throats. Oh, and by the way, their defense will be top 5 in the NCAA, again.

This team will take an inevitable step back, but what program doesn’t after a National Championship? In addition, Ohio State and Oregon are more talented on paper, but my basic principle is that I am not buying the disrespect in the odds.

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Wisconsin (+6500)

Stop me if you've heard this before; I am high on a Wisconsin football team. In my defense, they are within the top 10 winningest programs over the past twenty seasons, so it has been warranted. After an underwhelming and injury-riddled 2023 season, the Badgers look to bounce back. Yes, they have a difficult schedule, but there are a couple of key spots that will be easier than what initially meets the eye. One example of this is facing USC after they visit Ann Arbor: Those Cali boys will be beaten to all hell while Wisconsin comes off of a bye week.

As for the actual team, to put it simply, the Badgers defense is loaded. With returning NFL talent in Hunter Wohler and Ricardo Hallman, the Badgers added key transfers John Pius (William & Mary) and Jaheim Thomas (Arkansas) in addition to countless additions to their overall depth. This team should be a throwback Badgers defense, where they don't give up more than 20 ppg. As for the other side of the ball, an additional year of experience within Phil Longo's offense will work wonders for this unit. The Badgers' offense is returning key contributors at each level offensively, as well as bringing in Tyler Van Dyke (Miami) to compete with Bradyn Locke for the job.

I believe this team is worth taking a flier on, especially if they can somehow get Tyler Van Dyke to perform like his 2021 form.

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Favorite Win Totals: OVER

Wisconsin over 6.5 (-150)

I want to preface that this over will not be for the faint of heart. Although I believe Wisco will be able to win a couple of games higher than this number, with games against the likes of Alabama, Penn State, and Oregon, it will not be easy. As I touched on in the Darkhorse write-up, one thing big media won't tell you is that some of their toughest games are in favorable spots, which should help alleviate the concerns about the daunting schedule. Regardless, as I look at their schedule, I see six guaranteed victories. You're telling me the Badgers just need to pick off one of their six toughest opponents for the bet to cash? Hell, they might do that Week 3 when Alabama comes to Madison. As always, QB play and team health will be the two biggest factors with this bet.

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Indiana over 5.5 (-114)

Indiana is in a unique situation this year, which I feel bettors can benefit from. Curt Cignetti comes into Bloomington after a successful tenure at James Madison University, and along with him come impact transfers, none more important than WR Elijah Sarratt. Additionally, the best QB in some time (imo), Kurtis Rourke, off an injured season and a half, joins the Hoosiers. When accounting for incoming transfers and returning production, the Hoosiers' offense should be electric. The defensive side of the ball has rarely been Indiana's issue, especially with the lack of offense from the teams they'll be expected to beat for this total to hit. I have Indiana finishing in the 7-5/8-4 neighborhood based on their schedule difficulty (or the lack thereof). I expect this team to adopt Cignetti's bulldog mentality, with their true season beginning with a win in the Rose Bowl vs. UCLA. Get this in now, I expect there could be a jump to 6 within the next two weeks. 

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Favorite Win Totals: UNDER

UCLA Under 5.5 (-180)

There are three reasons why I believe this is an "all systems go" bet.

1. UCLA's travel schedule is absurd. The Bruins begin with Hawaii (on the island) before going across the country 8 times over the next 10 weeks. Remember, these are college kids, their bodies are going to be beyond worn out by the end of their first Big 10 schedule. 

2. UCLA does not have the horses to compete with the physicality of a B1G schedule. I do not believe the Bruins' depth is nearly good enough for the inherent injuries that will occur from this gauntlet. 

3. I am not inspired by the Deshaun Foster hiring. If his incredibly awkward opening statement at Big 10 media days was any indication, he will be gone by year four.

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Maryland Under 6.5 (-142)

Maryland is a team stuck in a difficult situation in the modern Big 10. They are not in the worst tier of programs, though they are not close to the top 8 teams within the conference, either. A team in constant purgatory who happens to be losing their best QB in program history in Taulia Tagovailoa is not promising. Finally, once their coach came out at Big 10 media day and admitted that he is still wondering how they're going to replace their QB (Dude, the season starts in 4 weeks). I knew this had to be locked up. They have a very difficult schedule, and I could not find many guaranteed wins as I ran through this schedule. It could be a long year for the Terps.

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Heisman Hopefuls

Dillon Gabriel (+700)

After Bo Nix's season in 2023, Dillon Gabriel should be able to enter the Ducks offense seamlessly. Gabriel sits as the current Heisman favorite, for good reason. Oregon's spread, short-throw-predicated offense will be able to feed insane numbers, and with the talent surrounding them, they should be able to make some noise on a national level. My only concern with Gabriel is his durability. Each year, he seemingly has a new or lingering injury, so I wonder if he will survive the physicality of a Big 10 schedule. The only thing that could hurt him is his health. 

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Will Howard (+1400)

A month away from the season and Will Howard continues to be the only question mark surrounding THE Ohio State Buckeyes. In my opinion, there is no doubt that he will be a serviceable, solid Quarterback, but we just saw how OSU fans treated Kyle McCord for that last season. Ohio State decided to go all-in this year from an NIL and talent perspective, and the question is whether or not Howard be able to finally deliver a National Championship to Ryan Day. If he does, there's a solid chance it could come with a Heisman trophy.

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