2024 College Football Conference Preview: ACC

The next conference deep dive will be about the ACC. 2024 will present a completely different look for the (self-proclaimed) Conference of Quarterbacks, welcoming universities from three time zones over with arms wide open (anything for free wins and $$ though). The ACC continues to have internal struggles with some of its higher-profile brands, particularly Florida State, who have tried everything to get out of the undervalued media rights contract, which lasts for another 14 seasons. It is not a surprise that the continued professionalism of college sports affected the Power 4 (5) conferences, but the ACC finds itself as the current loser of the Power 4. The Big 10 added four West Coast Powerhouses, the rich got richer down South as the SEC added Oklahoma and Texas, and the Big 12 completely rebranded themselves with a basketball-centric model. More than anything, the ACC has been a victim of circumstance, and they’ve had to continue to try to keep up at every turn. With its newest additions, the ACC has enhanced two things: its academics and its pocketbooks. Adding three of the nation’s richest universities in Cal, Stanford, and SMU (and not having to pay SMU for the first few years) should allow the original schools to grow their war chests, should additional structure changes within college sports occur. All of this is to say that I feel bad for the ACC. They deserve better and not to be treated like Rob Schneider’s third daughter in Grown Ups (you know which one). 

As for the football side, similarly to the Big 12, the ACC is defined by parity. Six schools have legitimate conference championship aspirations, each with stout defenses and great coaching. There are a couple of dark horses who could make some noise, but we’ll continue to dive into that throughout this piece. Let’s go ahead and dive into the actual football.

Darkhorse(s) to win the Conference

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NC State (+700)

We all know what we are getting from a Dave Doeren football team: A Hard-nosed, defensive-minded team that somehow finds a way to win. NC State has been a program that continues to win year in and year out, even with mediocre QB play and a lack of the conventional weapons on the outside that you’d expect from a perennial top-20 program. These reasons make 2024 so intriguing for the Wolfpack: They have both the necessary weapons and a more-than-serviceable option at Quarterback. Most of us thought reuniting Brennan Armstrong with his former OC, Robert Anae, would be a home run in 2023. To put it nicely, it was not, and even so, the Wolfpack still went 9-4. Add in Coastal Carolina transfer QB Grayson McCall, paired with budding star wideout KC Concepcion and stud transfer RB Jordan Waters, a favorable conference schedule, and we are looking at not only a chance at a conference championship but a potential playoff berth. 

Run to the table to get +700 or longer odds because I am not sure you’ll be able to get anything close to this high once the season begins, especially once they take down Tennessee in Charlotte, Week 2.

Virginia Tech (+1200)

After a couple of years in purgatory, the Hokies and Enter Sandman are BACK. In 2023, the young Hokies were able to battle through early season woes before hitting their stride from October and beyond. 2023 exhibited VT’s ability to be an offensive juggernaut, as each of their seven wins last season came by margins of 17+. Looking ahead to 2024, Virginia Tech has one of the easiest schedules amongst the Power 4 conference schools. Across the board, you’ll find favorable home games and manageable road games. Add in the typical Hokies defense, with an additional year of player development under their belt, and the Hokies could make some noise not only on the East Coast but nationally. 

The Hokies offense will be led by QB Kyron Drones, who plays like a combination of Jalen Hurts and Cam Newton. Those comparisons might sound crazy, but watch him for a couple of drives, and they’ll make complete sense. As for the defense, led by elite EDGE play, the lunch pale style should return to Blacksburg in 2024. Lastly, although it wasn’t a “sexy” hire, I’ll say it: Brent Pry is a damn good coach (at least when compared to Justin Fuente). Pry’s third year should be an exciting time for Hokie faithful.

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Favorite Win Total(s): Over

Pittsburgh over 5.5 (-115)

Coming off their worst season in recent memory, it seems most of the nation is out on Pat Narduzzi. Yes, he runs an extremely boring ship. Pittsburgh thrives off of taking the air out of the ball, burning the clock, and playing great defense. Ironically, their best season was one where they decided to air it out with Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison, but teams like Pitt don’t always have NFL talent at skill positions like that. 

As for 2024’s team, I believe this is a perfect buy-low opportunity on a program that is (almost) always in the Bowl conversation year-over-year. Nate Yarnell will return as QB for the Panthers, and in the four games he started, their offense was noticeably better than when Phil Jurkovic, who is long gone, was starting for the team. In addition, Pittsburgh went heavy in the portal in finding talented replacements on the defensive side of the ball, so mixed with Narduzzi’s style, I expect an immediate upgrade in that department. 

In addition to the actual roster makeup, when I look at their schedule and see five shoo-in wins, why would I need to feel comfortable with this team to win a game they “shouldn’t”? I’m not asking this team to win the conference, only to make a bowl game with a very favorable schedule. Give me the over.

Stanford over 3.5 (-165)

Although it did not necessarily translate to wins, one of the traits of the 2023 Stanford football team that has me buying into the Cardinal winning 4+ games is their grit. Stanford battled each game last year, whether the score was close or not. I don’t know if Troy Taylor can build the Cardinal program back to its Jim Harbaugh – early David Shaw days in this era of NIL, but I believe the ACC offers them an easier path to long-term success than the Pac-12 did. Stanford returns the duo of (QB) Ashton Daniels & (WR) Elic Ayomanor, who could make life hell for the usual mid-tier ACC opponents. 

As I look at the Stanford schedule heading into the season, I see three definitive wins (Cal Poly, Wake Forest, and San Jose State), so asking a team that is making an additional three conference opponents travel across the country for a sleepy, low energy game on west-coast to get one additional win is well within reason. Between the talent returning and a manageable non-conference schedule, I like the Cardinal to go over.

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Favorite Win Total(s): Under

North Carolina under 7.5 (-105)

I am a large fader of North Carolina teams under Mack Brown. Year after year, I hear: “UNC has a stud QB and a great recruiting class coming in!” followed by a season somewhere between 6-6 to 8-4. The only issue with that logic this season? There is no NFL draft-worthy Quarterback to save the Tar Heels from their defensive mediocrity this season. Although their schedule is very easy (non-conference and conference), Max Johnson in his third school does not inspire me.

Two additional causes for concern are surrounding coach Mack Brown and the transfer portal. In my opinion, Mack Brown is a decent coach but an even better person (this is not a compliment to his coaching). Regardless of how great he is, it is just about time to hang it up because the game might’ve passed him by. As for the transfer portal, UNC lost 22 players and only brought in 10. This could be viewed as a positive if some players who transferred were not Four stars (per On3). I worry that neither their coaching staff nor players can live up to the expectation of eight wins. Give me the under.

Duke under 5.5 (-165)

I want to preface this pick by saying I am a fan of the Manny Diaz hire and vision for the Duke football program. However, in the short term, the loss of Mike Elko and the hoards of transfers that left the program did not give them enough talent to produce in year one. I want to keep this one short and sweet, as I don’t think there is much to it. Key departures were the story of this offseason, as we saw Riley Leonard head to South Bend to join the Irish, star RB Jordan Waters moved across town to play for the Wolfpack, and overall, I am doubtful that Duke has been able to fill ½ of the gaps filled defensively from last season. With a difficult schedule (in terms of ACC teams), I do not see a world where the Blue Devils make a bowl game, although I am bullish on the future of the program post-2024.

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Heisman Hopefuls

Cam Ward (+1800)

It’s all about the U. For the first time in five seasons, the U finally has a chance to be all the way back in year three under Mario Cristobal. All the talent has developed, and all the pieces seem to be in place, spearheaded by highly coveted transfer QB Cam Ward. Cam Ward was a stud at Washington State and was the reason for the team's offensive success over the past two seasons. Boasting an average of 309 ypg last season, accompanied by a 3.5 TD/1 INT ratio, Ward now steps into his most talented situation with the easiest schedule ahead. If Miami is truly back, it will be because of Ward, which leads me to believe he could put up monster numbers. If Miami finishes ranked top-10 by year-end, don't be surprised if Ward gets an invite to NYC. Then again, this is yet another season of Miami battling expectations.

Kyron Drones (+10000)

Now, if you want a fun, long-shot Heisman winner, I don’t think you will find one with more potential than Kyron Drones. As I dove into earlier, he can be a dynamic runner, is big-bodied, and a strong-armed passer. When it comes to college, the typical trend in a Heisman is a dual-threat QB from a top-15 team. With how manageable the Hokies schedule is this year, emphasized by the fact that I believe they could win the ACC, if this is a special year, Drones will be the reason. At these odds, it is at least worth a sprinkle.

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